EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY AUD/USD
EUR/USD – 1.3040
The single currency found renewed buying interests at 1.2881 last week and has risen again in line with expectations, adding credence to the bullish view that the rose from 1.2662 is still in progress and may extend gain to 1.3080-85, then test of resistance at 1.3140, break there would confirm correction from 1.3172 has ended and bring retest of this recent high. Having said that, it is necessary to see a breach of 1.3172 resistance to retain bullishness for the upmove from 1.2042 to resume, extend rise to 1.3210-20, then towards previous resistance at 1.3284.
USD/JPY – 82.08
As resistance at 82.84 has continued to limit dollar’s upside, suggesting minor consolidation below there would take place and below last week’s low of 81.69 would bring correction to 81.00-10, however, reckon 80.68 would hold, bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would add credence to our bullish view that decline from 84.19 has ended at 77.14 and upside bias remains for the rise from there to extend gain to previous resistance at 83.30, then towards 83.90-00, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to previous resistance at 84.19, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.
USD/CHF – 0.9264
As the greenback has fallen again after brief bounce to 0.9341, adding credence to our view that rebound from 0.9216 has ended at 0.9513 and bearishness remains for retest of this support, break there would extend the downtrend from 0.9972 top for correction of early upmove towards 0.9150-60, however, reckon 0.9108 would limit downside and support at 0.9002 should remain intact.
AUD/USD – 1.0368
Although Aussie has risen again after finding support at 1.0287 and near term upside risk remains for the rebound from 1.0149 to extend gain to 1.0550, if our view that a temporary top formed at 1.0625 is correct, upside should be limited and bring another decline later. Below 1.0330-40 would suggest top is formed and bring test of said support at 1.0287, once this level is penetrated, this would confirm and bring weakness to 1.0235-40 support but break there is needed to signal the rebound from 1.0149 has ended and a retest of this support would follow. Looking ahead, if Aussie drops below 1.0149, this would add credence to our bearish count for correction of recent up move from 0.9581 to 1.0103 and possibly towards 1.0050-55, however, still reckon psychological support at 1.0000 would limit downside and previous support at 0.9969 would hold from here, bring rebound later.
GBP/USD – pair was bounded by a down-sloping trend-line for a long time and yesterday the price finally overcame it and surged till the upper Bollinger brand at 1.6124. The next resistance level is the weekly R2 at 1.6115 and 1.6169/81 area, where a long-run Downside trend-line intersects with the weekly R3 and monthly R1.
