EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY AUD/USD
EURUSD:
buy above 1.292 tp @ 1.298 & 1.3
After
a brief consolidation to start the week, the EUR/USD started to rally from the
1.29 area toward the 1.30 handle as we begin the 12/11 US trading session. In
the previous update, I noted the short-term implication of a break above 1.2950,
which is exposure to the resistance factors around 1.30.Resistance, momentum:
1.30 is a psychological pivot for EUR/USD and has shown to be an area of
resistance since late November. Also note that the RSI is pulling back up after
kissing 30. If the market has turned bearish, or even if it has turned into one
of consolidation, the RSI tends to be held at under 60. On the other hand, if
price pushes above 1.3010 and the RSI is pulled above 60, the bearish outlook
is shelved.The 200-4H-SMA is flat and reflects a market that is more or less
sideways, which has been the case since EUR/USD hit a high of 1.3170 in
September. If the market starts to find support above 1.30/1.3010, then the
target in the short-term could be back toward this 1.3170 high, but first the
1.3126 December high.Failure, head and shoulders: The inability to clear the
1.30 resistance area, focuses the market back to the 1.2950 near-term pivot,
and a break below that looks down at the support factors around 1.29. The
directional outlooks are very limited at the moment until a break above 1.3170
for a bullish outlook, or a break below 1.2880 with failure to clear 1.30 for
the bearish one. The latter case would form a head and shoulders as well as
break below a rising trendline going back to July’s 1.2042 low.
today's
focus is on Germany Wholesale prices and ZEW economic expectations index, US
International trade, Redbook, and Wholesale inventories, at 7, 13:30, 13:55 and
15 GMT respectively Quotes are moving just bellow the crossing and close 20 and
50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating slim bearish pressure. The value of the
RSI indicator is positive and inclining upwards, MACD is positive and quiet,
while CCI has crossed up the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving over all
light long signals. On Monday Euro/Dollar increased with 60 pips, ahead of
Fed's budget on Wednesday. The European currency appreciated from 1.2884 to
1.2947 yesterday, matching the positive money flow sentiment at over +17%,
closing the day at 1.2936. This morning the Euro lifted even further, reaching
1.2962. while on the 3 hour chart ratings are moving within wider trading
scope. Break above the nearest resistance and today's top at 1.2962 may trigger
further strengthening of the Euro. Going bellow yesterday's bottom and first
support at 1.2884, however, would confirm continuation of the bearish trend,
towards next objective downwards 1.2770.eurusd failed to continue its bearish
momentum yesterday after found a support around 1.2885 and hit 1.2961 earlier
today. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen around
1.2975 – 1.3000. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger
further bullish pressure testing 1.3100. Immediate support is seen around
1.2920 but key intraday support remains around 1.2850 which needs to be clearly
broken to the downside to continue the bearish scenario after fell from 1.3125.
My medium/long term outlook remains neutral. The pair is expected to find
support at 1.2903, and a fall through could take it to the next support level
of 1.2856. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2979, and a
rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3009.because of
The Euro also received support after Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti eased
concerns over his decision to resign, saying there was no danger of a vacuum
ahead of an election.Moreover, European partners urged the next Italian
government to stick to Prime Minister Mario Monti’s reform agenda, after his
decision to resign early and Silvio Berlusconi’s return to frontline politics
weighed on financial markets.
GBPUSD:
buy above 1.6055 tp @ 1.6095 & 1.6115
gbpusd
had a bullish momentum yesterday and now back struggling around the trend line
resistance as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is neutral in
nearest term probably with a little bullish bias testing 1.6100/30. Immediate
support is seen around 1.6050. A clear break back below that area would keep
the false trend line breakout bearish scenario intact testing 1.6000 support
area The pair is expected to find support at 1.6034, and a fall through could
take it to the next support level of 1.5983. The pair is expected to find its
first resistance at 1.6117, and a rise through could take it to the next
resistance level of 1.6148.The pair is expected to trade on the cues from the
release of Conference Board leading economic index in the UK.
USDJPY:
buy above 82.25 tp @ 82.6 & 82.7
usdjpy
didn’t make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my
technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term and I still prefer
a bullish scenario. However, we have a strong intraday resistance around 82.82,
a triple top formation. We need a clear break above that area to continue the
bullish scenario testing 83.00 – 84.00. Immediate support remains around 82.00.
A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term
testing 81.65/50 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario.
USDCHF:
buy above 0.9315 tp @ 0.9365 & 0.9385
usdchf had a bearish momentum yesterday and hit
0.9320 earlier today. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a
little bearish bias testing 0.9250 key intraday support. Immediate resistance
is seen around 0.9350. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish
pressure testing 0.9400 or higher. My medium/long term outlook remains neutral.
AUD/USD:
buy above 1.0455 tp @ 1.052 & 1.0545
aussie
down as business confidence weakens in austral the pair is expected to find
support at 1.0460, and a fall through could take it to the next support level
of 1.0439. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0504, and a
rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0527 In Australia,
Westpac consumer confidence data due later today is likely to generate market
interest.The currency pair is trading just below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving
averages.
